YouGov plc narrowly missed EPS by 26%: Here’s what analysts think will happen next

YouGov plc (LON: YOU) Shareholders are probably feeling a bit disappointed, as its shares fell 5.1% to £7.84 in the UK in the week after its latest annual results. Overall, results weren’t great, with earnings of £0.15 a share well below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, revenue hit £221m and was slightly better than expected. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know if they think there has been a strong change in the company’s outlook, or if business is as it is. habit. Readers will be happy to know that we’ve rounded up the latest statutory forecasts to see if analysts have changed their minds on YouGov after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for YouGov

AIM:YOU Earnings and Revenue Growth October 16, 2022

Given the latest results, YouGov’s five analyst consensus forecast predicts revenue of £261.5m in 2023, which would reflect a notable 18% improvement in sales over the past 12 months. Earnings per share are expected to rise 95% to £0.30. Prior to this earnings report, analysts were forecasting revenue of £259.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.30 in 2023. So it’s pretty clear that although analysts put updated their estimates, there has been no major change in expectations for the company following the latest results.

The consensus price target fell 7.0% to UK£14.30, suggesting that analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous assessment – or that they were expecting the company to provide more solid indications in the annual results. This is not the only conclusion we can draw from this data, however, as some investors also like to take into account the discrepancy in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are variations in perception on YouGov, with the most bullish analyst pricing it at UK£16.40 and the most bearish at UK£12.00 per share. There are certainly different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough to imply that the situation is unpredictable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these predictions is to put them in context with the industry itself. Analysts certainly expect YouGov’s growth to accelerate, with projected annualized growth of 18% through the end of 2023 ranking favorably alongside historic growth of 13% per year over the past five years. In contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are expected to grow revenue by 6.9% annually. Taking into account the expected revenue acceleration, it’s pretty clear that YouGov should grow much faster than its industry.

The essential

The most important thing to remember is that there has been no major shift in sentiment, with analysts confirming the company is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they have also reconfirmed their revenue figures, suggesting sales are in line with expectations – and our data suggests revenue is set to grow faster than the industry as a whole. Additionally, analysts have also cut their price targets, suggesting the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the company’s intrinsic value.

With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on YouGov. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s earnings. We have forecasts for YouGov until 2025, and you can view them for free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have bought or sold stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades over the past twelve months on our platform here.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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